Houses are (for a while) cheaper, but we cannot enjoy it for long

Nowadays we still hear the noise of piles, drilling and sawing machines everywhere, but next year the construction sector will also be hit hard by the corona crisis. This is temporarily good news for consumers who want to buy a house. In the long term, however, the housing shortage will only increase and prices will also rise.

The construction of homes will come to a standstill next year, Madeline Buijs, ABN Amro’s senior sector economist Construction and Property, who is publishing a sector analysis on construction. We do not buy a house if we are unsure about our financial situation.

“Consumer confidence has dropped from 3 to -38 when it comes to whether consumers want to make large issues. That will have an effect on house prices, making project developers less inclined to build houses.”

Lower asking prices for housing market next year
You don’t see that reflected in the asking prices yet. Huge amounts of money are still being paid for homes and more and more terraced houses are worth more than 1 million euros.

A fall in consumer confidence is always months ahead of a fall in house prices, says Buijs. This is also because the government tries to keep people in work with all kinds of measures such as NOW.

“In the previous crisis, the low point in the housing market was even reached after 58 months. There are still enough people looking for a home, so prices do not fall immediately. wallet again. ”

Fall in house prices expected
ABN Amro expects house prices to fall next year. That is good news for the buying consumer, but only in the short term. If project developers temporarily do not build or build fewer houses because profits are falling, the housing shortage will increase further in the long term, resulting in (again) high prices. And new housing construction has already declined due to the PFAS and nitrogen crisis.

Ideally, the construction of homes is completely independent of economic effects, says Buijs. “The population is growing fast. You always have to keep building, even in a crisis. But project developers naturally have a profit motive, so it’s better to wait a while.”

 

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